Week 3 Props: Schultz's Catch Count, Ferguson's Role, and Warren's Widening Target Tree

Dalton Schultz has sixteen catches on twenty targets through two games, twelve of them alone in Week 2 with Nico Collins out. FanDuel still has his catch total sitting at 5.5, priced close to even money. Two other Texans-and-Colts-adjacent tight ends are living the same story on Sunday: an injury opens a role, and the market is slower to move the reception number than the receiving-yards number. That gap, reconfirmed live this afternoon rather than left sitting at this morning's numbers, is the whole idea behind this list.

These are the Sunday, September 27 games from the rest of NFL Week 3 (Thursday's Falcons-Packers game is already final, and Monday's Week 3 game is Eagles at Bears, 8:15 p.m. ET, no props from that game below). Every line below got a live re-check between roughly 1:11 and 2:19 p.m. ET today, not a carry-forward from this morning's first pass.

How to use this: these are informational reads on public lines, not betting advice. Confirm the current price in your own book before you play it, because a line that's already moved once today can move again before kickoff. If you bet, set a budget and stick to it. If it stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

The stands

Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans at Colts. Over 5.5 receptions.

Kickoff 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS, Lucas Oil Stadium. FanDuel has this at Yes -102 / No -130, live-loaded about 2:18 p.m. ET today, the same number as this morning. Covers' board, stamped 6:31 a.m. ET, showed bet365 at over 5.5 -105. DraftKings' current price didn't render on either pull, so we're not printing a DraftKings number. Nico Collins (hamstring) is out, confirmed on the NFL.com Week 3 status page loaded about 2:18 p.m. ET today. Schultz caught 4 of his targets in Week 1 with Collins active, then 12 of 14 for 140 yards in Week 2 with Collins out, a 23.4 percent target share across the two games. Eight or twelve catches against a 5.5 line is real cushion. Confidence: solid.

Terrance Ferguson, TE, Rams at Broncos (Sunday night). Over 4.5 receptions (alt line).

Kickoff 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock, Empower Field at Mile High. The main line at 3.5 is short: FanDuel Yes -172 / No +128, live-loaded about 2:18 p.m. ET today. The alt line at 4.5 is the value: Caesars +125 (under -150) and BetRivers +135, both confirmed off Covers' live board within the same window this afternoon. Puka Nacua (hip) is doubtful and didn't practice all week; Rams coach Sean McVay has said he expects Nacua back in Week 4, which reads as this week's absence being closer to settled than open. In the one game Nacua already missed this season, Ferguson ran a 58.3 percent snap share and 66.7 percent route participation, drew 9 targets on a 29 percent target share, and went 6 for 54 with a touchdown. Another game without Nacua makes four catches a reasonable floor, and the plus-money alt line hasn't caught up to a second straight week of that role. Confidence: solid, with one flip condition: if Nacua is upgraded to active on the final report, both the role and the price disappear.

Tyler Warren, TE, Colts vs. Texans. Over 4.5 receptions.

Kickoff 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS, Lucas Oil Stadium (same game as the Schultz pick above). DraftKings has this at -126 (under -101), a live Covers pull stamped 2:09 p.m. ET today, loaded about 2:16 p.m. ET. That's shorter than the -120 we had this morning, meaning the market moved toward the over, not away from it. Alec Pierce (heel) is out, and Colts head coach Shane Steichen has placed him on injured reserve for at least four games. Warren caught 3 of his targets in Week 1 and 6 of 7 in Week 2, a touchdown in each game, already averaging 4.5 catches a game before Pierce's targets fully redistribute. Confidence: solid.

On watch, not a stand yet

Two more, and the one number we couldn't nail down at all:

Marcus Mariota, QB, Commanders vs. Seahawks. Rushing yards, at 23.5. Jayden Daniels (elbow) is out again, confirmed out for Sunday per Commanders Wire's Friday-night report, and Mariota starts. FanDuel has him at 23.5, pick'em juice (-113/-113), live-loaded about 2:18 p.m. ET today, the top of the range we were tracking this morning. An earlier Covers snapshot from around 3:49 a.m. today showed a wider book split (Fanatics 20.5, BetMGM and bet365 at 21.5, DraftKings at 22.5), but that snapshot is hours stale against FanDuel's live number now. If you can still find 21.5 or 22.5 somewhere, that's the number; at 23.5 it's closer to fair value than an edge, so pass unless you find lower.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers vs. Bengals. Rushing attempts, contingent on him playing, and the number moved. Kickoff 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS, Acrisure Stadium. This morning we had 14.5 at theScore. That price didn't show up on a live re-check; what did show up is 15.5, confirmed across bet365 (-115), William Hill (-108/-125), and BetVictor (-111/-125) on a Covers pull stamped 1:11 p.m. ET today. Rico Dowdle (toe) is out, confirmed via the Steelers' own site. Warren himself carries a questionable tag (shoulder), limited in practice all week; Steelers Now and PennLive both report the running backs coach expects him to play, but the official game status is still questionable, not cleared. No bet until Sunday's inactive list posts, and if you're in, it's the 15.5 number we can confirm, not the 14.5 we had this morning.

Seahawks at Commanders, first-half total. Still can't attribute a number to a named book. One first-half board has this at 20.5 with no sportsbook named. BetMGM's own writeup, published Friday morning, has a different first-half total: under 21.5 at -140. Two different numbers, neither one a live, named-book price we can confirm right now. This one stays off the list, same as it was this morning.

The read

The theme across the three stands holds up under a same-day re-check: an injury opens a role, the market moves the receiving-yards line to match, and the reception line lags behind, especially on Warren and Ferguson where the price actually got shorter today, meaning the market is catching up in real time rather than sitting still. Recheck every name against Sunday morning's official inactive list before kickoff; a Friday questionable becoming an active changes the Ferguson and Jaylen Warren situations most.

Sources

Line checks run two ways and cross-referenced against each other: Grok live search via grok --prompt-file, session window approximately 2:15 to 2:19 p.m. ET Saturday, September 26, 2026 (pulling FanDuel Sportsbook, Covers, Action Network, and Wunderdog); and independent WebSearch/WebFetch pulls of Covers.com player pages, FanDuel's own sportsbook pages, BetMGM's NFL blog, and the NFL.com Week 3 injury/status page, same afternoon. Injury reporting: NFL.com's official Week 3 status page (loaded ~2:18 p.m. ET); CBS Sports' Saturday injury roundup and its separate Alec Pierce/IR report; Steelers.com (Teresa Varley, Sept. 25); Commanders Wire (Bryan Manning, Sept. 26, 1:22 a.m. ET); therams.com and Forbes/Yahoo Sports usage breakdowns on Terrance Ferguson (Sept. 26). Kickoff times and networks confirmed via the NFL.com Week 3 schedule page. The DraftKings Schultz price, live Fanatics/Hard Rock prices on the Ferguson alt line, and a named-book price for the Seahawks-Commanders first-half total could not be confirmed live and are not printed as fact above.

ZeroChalk. Fade the chalk. This is analysis of public lines and public reporting retrieved September 26, 2026, not betting advice. No guarantees, ever; recheck Sunday's official inactive list before you lock anything. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.