TNF: Buccaneers at Cowboys, the Thursday Start/Sit Call

Tampa Bay at Dallas kicks off Thursday Night Football tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. One team gets its starting quarterback back from the bench by subtraction. The other gets its left guard back from injured reserve. Both change the calls below.

The Mayfield situation changes everything in Tampa's passing game

Baker Mayfield is out. He dislocated his thumb and, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, is looking at three to six weeks depending on how soon he can grip a football again. Jalon Daniels starts in his place for the second straight week, and the Buccaneers are 0-4 heading into Arlington.

SIT Jalon Daniels and every Tampa Bay pass-catcher who depends on him. A rookie making his second career start, on the road, against a defense that gets to pin its ears back, is not a lineup you want to lean on. That drags the whole receiving corps down with him, Chris Godwin included.

SIT Chris Godwin in anything but a PPR floor play. Godwin drew a team-leading 25.9% target share in Week 4 and still managed only 31 yards. The volume is there; the quarterback behind it is not.

Emeka Egbuka is the one piece of good news in that receiving room: he worked back from a preseason toe injury, and there is no injury designation on him for tonight. That is still a 19.8% target share through four weeks. FLEX Egbuka cautiously if you need the bodies, but temper expectations with Daniels at quarterback.

START Cade Otton as a streaming tight end if you are desperate, SIT him otherwise. It is not a confident play, just the least bad one in a thin room.

Bucky Irving is the one Buccaneer you can trust

Here is Bucky Irving's workload no matter who is at quarterback. He played 61.5% of the snaps in Week 1 with a 58.3% route share on passing downs, posted 180 yards on the ground through three weeks, and turned 15 targets into 13 catches. Week 4 against Green Bay was a down game in a 17-14 loss: just 16 carries for 61 yards and no score.

START Bucky Irving with confidence anyway. A rookie quarterback who needs an outlet throws underneath more, not less, and Irving is already the Buccaneers' clearest receiving back even after a quiet Week 4. The passing-game role survives a quarterback change even when one week's box score does not look like it.

Dallas gets its left guard back, and that is the real Cowboys story

Tyler Smith, Dallas's starting left guard, missed the first month after thumb surgery right before the season opener. The Cowboys opened his 21-day practice window, and he is set to play tonight, restoring the left side of a line that has been without him all season.

START Javonte Williams. He is coming off a three-touchdown game against Houston and now gets his left guard back against a Tampa Bay front. The role was already strong; the blocking in front of it just got better.

START Dak Prescott in any format. He has thrown for 1,065 yards and eight touchdowns through four games. He showed up to his postgame presser with his throwing hand wrapped after Sunday's win over Houston, but he said himself he was "stepped on" and is fine outside the swelling. Nothing here is a game-status concern, and Smith's return only helps him.

START CeeDee Lamb, no debate. He leads the league in catches and receiving yards through four weeks, at 124.5 yards per game. This is not a start/sit call, it is a lineup requirement.

SIT George Pickens in standard formats, FLEX in PPR-heavy leagues only. Pickens is playing the field-stretcher role next to a healthy Lamb: 225 yards and zero touchdowns on 18 catches, a career-low 12.5 yards per reception. He got as few as three targets in one game against Lamb's 21. The big play is always possible, but the target floor is not there week to week.

SIT Jake Ferguson. He has not topped 43 receiving yards in any game this season and managed three catches for 11 yards last week. Smith's return helps the run game and Prescott's protection; it does not create more work for a tight end who is not seeing it already.

The bottom line

Tampa Bay's passing attack is a wait-and-see problem until Mayfield's thumb heals; lean on Irving and treat everyone else in that huddle as a low-confidence play. Dallas is the healthier, more trustworthy side of this game, and it just got a starting lineman back on top of that. Start the Cowboys you'd already start, sit the Buccaneers who need their suddenly-gone quarterback to bail them out.