Hot & Cold After Week 5: Why I’m selling Braelon Allen before Breece Hall returns

Braelon Allen just handled 28 of 32 Jets backfield chances, which is exactly why I’m trying to trade him before Breece Hall walks back through the door.

Buy Low: Chase Brown

Brown’s Week 5 was ugly enough to make your lineup smell like a dead raccoon under the porch. He finished with a season-low 7.0 fantasy points while Samaje Perine played 33 snaps to Brown’s 38, won the carry count 14–13, and outgained him on the ground. Perine also caught a touchdown, because apparently ruining Brown’s afternoon wasn’t enough.

I’m buying if the current manager sees a permanent demotion. Brown still led the backfield in snaps, and Cincinnati’s Week 6 bye gives everyone extra time to stare at the box score and panic. The Perine involvement is real, so this isn’t a blind faith call. It’s a bet that a near-even snap split is being priced like Brown disappeared.

He didn’t. The backfield got messier.

Sell High: Braelon Allen

Allen has been a wrecking ball with Breece Hall out. He played 86% of the snaps in Week 5, took 28 of 32 backfield chances, and turned 24 carries into 116 yards and a touchdown.

That workload is beautiful. I’d frame it and hang it over the fireplace.

Hall may return as soon as Week 6, though, and Allen’s current value rests on the Jets continuing to treat him like the only running back in the building. If someone wants to pay for the 24-carry version, take the deal. Allen can remain useful after Hall returns, but a near-total share of the carries won’t survive a healthy backfield.

Hot

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jaguars

Tuten took control without leaving much room for interpretation. He played a season-high 66% of the snaps and handled 25 of Jacksonville’s 30 running-back chances, including 22 carries. Over two games, his carry share has gone from 32% to 72%, while his snap share has moved from 33% to 64%.

LeQuint Allen played 19% of the snaps, and Chris Rodriguez finished at 13%. That’s a depth chart getting flattened under Tuten’s workload. A running back can lie with a touchdown. Twenty-five opportunities are much harder to fake.

Woody Marks, RB, Texans

David Montgomery’s groin injury opened the backfield, and Marks walked through it carrying everything that wasn’t nailed down. He played 84% of the snaps, with 15 carries and four targets. Montgomery managed nine snaps and five carries before leaving in the second quarter.

DeMeco Ryans said Montgomery may miss some time, which puts Marks in line to start Week 6. This one doesn’t require interpretive dance. An 84% snap share and nineteen combined carries and targets make Marks a volume play for as long as Montgomery is out.

Ollie Gordon II, RB, Dolphins

De’Von Achane’s absence has pushed Gordon from supporting actor to the guy holding the script. His two-game carry share rose from 18% to 51%, and his snap share climbed from 28% to 61%. In Week 5, he played 66% of the snaps and took 18 of Miami’s 24 backfield carries.

Miami has a Week 6 bye, so Gordon won’t help immediately. The role change still matters, especially if Achane remains unavailable afterward. Gordon was at a 73% snap share before the final two minutes of Week 5, which tells us the Dolphins weren’t easing him into the work. They were using him.

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants

Twenty targets. Eleven catches. One hundred twenty-one yards. One touchdown.

Nabers ran a route on 95% of the Giants’ dropbacks and commanded a 38% target share, plus 48% of the air yards. His snap share climbed from 52% in the opener to roughly 90–92% in Week 5. Over the last two games, his target share has climbed from 22% to 31%.

A twenty-target game is ridiculous, but the weekly rise underneath it matters more. The Giants are building the passing game around Nabers. As you wish.

Germie Bernard, WR, Steelers

Michael Pittman Jr. is on injured reserve, and Bernard has taken the vacancy seriously. He played 92% of the snaps in Week 5. Across his two games as a featured receiver, he has 17 targets, ten catches, 115 yards, and a 24% target share.

His two-game averages have moved from 36% to 66% of the snaps and from an 8% target share to 18%. That’s the kind of change I want before the touchdowns arrive. Bernard isn’t running hot because one broken play padded his box score. He’s staying on the field and earning targets.

George Pickens, WR, Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb’s quad injury reduced him to one fourth-quarter snap and a 55% snap share for the game. Pickens responded with a 13-target afternoon, accounting for 31% of Dallas’ targets and 37% of the air yards. He caught nine passes for 130 yards and a touchdown while playing 87% of the snaps and running a route on 88% of dropbacks.

Lamb’s status controls the ceiling here. If he’s limited or unavailable, Pickens has already shown us where the extra work goes. He’s the wide receiver equivalent of finding an unguarded queen on the chessboard. Take it before somebody realizes what they left hanging.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers

Egbuka drew nine targets from Jalon Daniels, a 36% target share, and soaked up 72% of Tampa Bay’s air yards. He ran a route on 84% of the dropbacks and played 89% of the snaps.

His season target share is 23%, so Week 5 was a spike rather than his established baseline. Still, the quarterback change didn’t bury him. It concentrated the passing game around him. That’s enough to keep him hot without pretending 72% of the air yards will happen every Sunday.

George Pickens’ Target Ledger

Yes, Pickens already got his section. He gets another cup of coffee because 13 targets, a 31% share, and 37% of the air yards deserve to be separated from the touchdown. The score made the highlight reel. The usage made the call.

If Lamb returns at full strength, Pickens cools from nuclear to merely dangerous. Until then, Dallas has told us who gets fed.

Cold

Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers

Hampton hit a season-low 30% snap share against Denver. He still led the Chargers with 14 carries, but they produced 33 yards.

Kimani Vidal led the backfield with 28 snaps and scored on a 42-yard run. Keaton Mitchell added 23 snaps. That’s a three-man committee, which is fantasy language for everyone getting enough work to annoy you.

The 14 carries keep Hampton from becoming an emergency. The 30% snap share keeps him cold.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals

Brown is the buy-low because he’s cold, not because I’ve decided Week 5 didn’t happen. Perine played five fewer snaps, took one more carry, gained more rushing yards, and caught the backfield’s touchdown. Brown managed 39 yards on 13 carries, then added three catches for 21 yards.

The Week 6 bye delays any answer. If Perine keeps taking half the work afterward, Brown’s old valuation is dead. For now, I’m betting on the price falling further than the role did.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Falcons

Robinson played a season-low 14 snaps, roughly 22%, and finished with seven carries for 16 yards and no catches. Bijan Robinson played 52 of Atlanta’s 64 snaps, handled 17 carries, and caught four passes.

Seven carries can support a touchdown-dependent flex when the offense cooperates. They can also support three points and a lot of muttering at your television. With Bijan at 81% of the snaps, Brian Robinson needs efficiency or a score because the workload won’t save him.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots

Henderson suffered a high ankle sprain on an 11-yard run in the second quarter against Las Vegas. He isn’t expected to need surgery, but he’ll miss multiple weeks.

Rhamondre Stevenson handled 13 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown, with Corey Kiner behind him. Henderson’s problem isn’t some mysterious dip in usage. His ankle made the decision for us.

David Montgomery, RB, Texans

Montgomery’s groin injury ended his Week 5 after nine snaps and five carries for 11 yards. Ryans said he may miss some time, and Marks took an 84% snap share in relief.

Injury sells are miserable because everyone in the league can read the same red tag. Montgomery is cold until there’s a return timetable, while Marks gets the usable workload.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, 49ers

Samuel left the Seattle game with 5:06 remaining in the third quarter because of a right hamstring injury. Kyle Shanahan said it “got him pretty good” and expects him to miss at least the next couple of games.

Hamstrings don’t care about your roster construction. Samuel goes to the bench, and any trade discussion has to account for an absence that could stretch beyond two weeks.

Shit Sandwich of the Week: Brian Robinson Jr.

The bread is seven carries. The filling is 16 yards. The little decorative toothpick nobody asked for is zero catches.

Robinson played about 22% of the snaps while Bijan handled 81%, so there isn’t a hidden workload waiting beneath the ugly result. This was an ugly result attached to a smaller role, the full fecal panini.

Sell Low or Trade: Brian Robinson Jr.

Don’t drop Robinson. Trade him as the secondary piece in a larger deal if another manager still values the name, the handcuff angle, or the chance of a touchdown on limited work.

His Week 5 role gives us little reason to expect stable standalone volume. Bijan owned the snaps, carries, and receiving work, leaving Robinson with seven attempts and no targets. Holding him is defensible if your bench can absorb a contingency back. If it can’t, package him now instead of waiting for another 22% snap share to make the sales pitch even worse.

ZeroChalk is not affiliated with the NFL, NFL teams, or the NFLPA. Injury and role calls are best-guess reads from public practice and camp reporting, not inside information.